Chloride is toxic

I think we have given too little attention to the nature of the crystalloid solutions we use. Not just in neonatology, but apparently in the adult ICU also,  (Yunos NM, Bellomo R, Hegarty C, Story D, Ho L, Bailey M: Association between a chloride-liberal vs chloride-restrictive intravenous fluid administration strategy and kidney injury in critically ill adults. JAMA : the journal of the American Medical Association 2012, 308(15):1566-1572) I’m a bit surprised this was published in JAMA, although it is interesting, it is not methodologically the best study, in fact it is not even a trial, it is a cohort study where the authors changed their practice in a very strict fashion, and recorded patient outcome data. They did this for a 6 months control period, then a 6 month intervention period.

First a bit about the results and the potential implications in neonatology, I will come back to the study design later.

Background: We know that normal saline has far more chloride than normal plasma, and that it’s use can lead to hyperchloremic acidosis for exactly this reason. Older patients often receive Ringers lactate, Hartmann solution or other lower chloride solutions, but there is very little use of these solutions in newborns. In my unit very often arterial lines in the past were filled with normal or half normal saline. I think neither of these are optimal, saline has relatively far too much chloride, and in fact we should avoid sodium in the first 3 or 4 days of life, as RCTs have shown worse outcomes when more sodium is administered.

Half normal saline is probably not a good idea, you give less sodium, but hypotonic solutions are problematic as when the blood is withdrawn into the catheter and syringe, there is a mixture created of the hypotonic solution and the blood which leads to lysis of the red cells. So although you give less sodium you end up giving more potassium and free hemoglobin when you re-infuse the dead space. We now often use a solution of sodium acetate in the arterial lines, which may be variably hypotonic, this has the advantage of giving less chloride and giving a buffer in its place, but there has been little study of acetate in the newborn.

To get back to this new study, the authors noted that high chloride administration in experimental animals causes renal dysfunction. So during the intervention period they changed their usual fluid administration practices, eliminating normal saline and 4% albumin and using lower chloride solutions (Hartmanns solution, plasma-lyte and 20% albumin) instead. They found significantly less acute kidney injury, and less need for renal replacement therapy (dialysis and the like).

I think this does not have direct implications for our practice, but should stimulate us to think a bit more about the fluids that we use, and whether they are optimal or not.

Finally to return to the study design, I think this is the worst of both worlds. I know it is a pain to design randomized controlled trials, and it can be horrendous getting them through the ethics review committees, but this study (which was approved by the ethics committee without the need for consent) could have been much more important, had much more impact and saved (or not depending on the findings) many future adults in ICU from kidney failure if they had randomized the subjects. As it is, people will discount this because they didn’t do it right; the patients were exposed to exactly the same risks as if they had been in an RCT, and people will go on using high chloride solutions, or will change to lower chloride when we really don’t know the probable effects.

An editorial in JAMA accompanying this study noted “A more definitive study examining the composition of intravenous fluids is now justified and necessary to scientifically test for potential adverse effect” how much better if they had done that straight away.

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Abort all the bankers!

I just heard a great quote from Francesca Martinez on the BBC News Quiz. Francesca Martinez is a stand up comic with a disability (she is often a sit-down comic in fact as you can see here), she is very witty, and often pokes fun at the preconceptions of her audience, she often notes that she has cerebral palsy, but prefers to call herself “wobbly”.

On the News Quiz she recounted doing her show at a doctors conference, after which, during a question and answer session with the audience, someone told her that they were a doctor involved in antenatal counseling and that they felt part of their duty, when counseling about aborting a disabled fetus, was to “reduce the suffering in the world”.

I loved her response to this, first of all she said that the room was very quiet (I imagine that many people present were super embarrassed by the question, and also fascinated to hear how a disabled comedian would answer) her retort was that if they really wanted to reduce the suffering in the world, they should abort all the  bankers, arms dealers, politicians and Rupert Murdoch!

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Weekly Updates #12

Welzing L, Oberthuer A, Junghaenel S, Harnischmacher U, Stützer H, Roth B: Remifentanil/midazolam versus fentanyl/midazolam for analgesia and sedation of mechanically ventilated neonates and young infants: a randomized controlled trial. Intensive Care Medicine 2012, 38(6):1017-1024. A small RCT (n=23) comparing fentanyl to remifentanil (both with midazolam). Both regimes gave good sedation and analgesia, but the remifentanil babies were able to be extubated much faster. Fentanyl has an average half life of about 10 hours in the newborn; remifentanil is metabolised by circulating esterases and has an extremely short half-life of about 3 to 6 minutes (this has not been confirmed in small neonates)

Bennett NJ, Tabarani CM, Bartholoma NM, Wang D, Huang D, Riddell SW, Kiska DL, Hingre R, Rosenberg HF, Domachowske JB: Unrecognized Viral Respiratory Tract Infections in Premature Infants during their Birth Hospitalization: A Prospective Surveillance Study in Two Neonatal Intensive Care Units. The Journal of Pediatrics 2012, 161(5):814-818.e813. If you look for respiratory viral infections routinely, you will find them. Not only will you find them, but they seem to prolong assisted ventilation and are associated with bronchopulmonary dysplasia, even though they usually do not cause any obvious symptoms.

 Martinez-Biarge M, Bregant T, Wusthoff CJ, Chew ATM, Diez-Sebastian J, Rutherford MA, Cowan FM: White Matter and Cortical Injury in Hypoxic-Ischemic Encephalopathy: Antecedent Factors and 2-Year Outcome. The Journal of Pediatrics 2012, 161(5):799-807. Follow up of 84 infants with HIE who did not have basal ganglia or thalamic injury. They not that few infants had cerebral palsy, and none very severe CP, but that a wide range of other disabilities were prevalent, cognitive, language, behavioural and seizures.

Katheria A, Rich W, Finer N: Electrocardiogram Provides a Continuous Heart Rate Faster Than Oximetry During Neonatal Resuscitation. Pediatrics 2012. Again challenging our standard practice during resuscitation, Neil Finer and his group measured how long it takes during resuscitation to get a reliable heart rate using the standard (which has become pulse oximetry) to sticking on ECG electrodes like we do everywhere else in medicine. It was faster to put the probes in place (26 vs 38 secs), and much faster to get an audible heart rate signal when you stick the ECG leads on (2 seconds) versus the oximeter probe (24 seconds).

Carr R: The role of colony stimulating factors and immunoglobulin in the prevention and treatment of neonatal infection. Arch Dis Child Fetal Neonatal Ed 2012. A very nice review of the current state of the art.

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Glutamine supplementation, just when you thought it was solved…

Glutamine is one of the most abundant amino acids in our bodies, but there is relatively little in TPN as it is poorly soluble. During the first few days of limited enteral nutrition preterm babies receive little glutamine from any source, and this probably contributes to gut atrophy and perhaps to later feeding intolerance. So a number of studies have tried to supplement glutamine either enterally or in TPN. The Cochrane review shows no overall effect of either mode of supplementation (the latest version from earlier this year, has changed authors apart from Bill McGuire, and includes 11 RCTs with 2800 babies; pretty good evidence for the field of neonatology, and almost entirely negative).

Just published on-line in Pediatrics is a long term outcome study of one of the trials, with some elegant analysis of MRI data from the participants at about 8,5 years (de Kieviet JF, Oosterlaan J, Vermeulen RJ, Pouwels PJW, Lafeber HN, van Elburg RM: Effects of Glutamine on Brain Development in Very Preterm Children at School Age. Pediatrics 2012.). Only 53 of the 89 surviving infants were imaged, but the study shows some differences favouring the glutamine group. They did however perform 15 statistical comparisons between the groups, with no apparent adjustment for the multiple testing; and showed a larger hippocampus in the glutamine supplemented babies.

Now if you go back to their original publication, (van den Berg A, van Elburg RM, Westerbeek EA, Twisk JW, Fetter WP: Glutamine-enriched enteral nutrition in very-low-birth-weight infants and effects on feeding tolerance and infectious morbidity: a randomized controlled trial. The American Journal of Clinical Nutrition 2005, 81(6):1397-1404.) You find that the primary outcome variable was feeding tolerance. In a study with a total of about 100 babies of less than 32 weeks and less than 1500 grams they showed no effect on feeding tolerance. A secondary outcome of serious infections was however different between groups. They actually had an enormously high rate of serious culture positive infections, 75% in the controls and 50% in the glutamine supplemented group, despite  mean birth weight which was over 1.1 kg.

This new follow up study was therefore analyzed with infections as an important co-variate, and all of the differences in MRI findings are explained by the associations between infection and adverse brain development. Importantly the Cochrane review mentioned above does not show any effect of glutamine on infections. So this study was somewhat of an outlier, it does add weight to the importance of infection as an indicator for future cerebral developmental abnormalities, but does not mean that we should re-open the question of supplemental glutamine supplementation in the preterm. I still think that question is settled. Unless perhaps you have a 75% incidence of serious bacterial infections in your VLBW infants….

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Tocolytics and Network meta-analysis

What do you do if you want to know what is the best treatment for a condition, and treatment A and treatment B have both been compared to placebo, but have never been compared to each other in RCTs? If there are multiple options, rather than just 2, then it is usual that several have not been directly compared to each other.

One way to approach this is to do what is called a network meta-analysis, where you try and calculate the relative efficacy of each treatment, and then estimate whether A is better or worse than B. Is this valid? I am not sure… (and I am not alone Li T, Puhan MA, Vedula SS, Singh S, Dickersin K: Network meta-analysis-highly attractive but more methodological research is needed. BMC Med 2011, 9:79.) If the samples were very homogeneous and many details of the research protocols, such as timing and duration of intervention, timing and nature of outcome measures etc etc were identical, then a network meta-analysis might be enticing. Unfortunately that is not often the case.

A new network meta-analysis has been published (Haas DM, Caldwell DM, Kirkpatrick P, McIntosh JJ, Welton NJ: Tocolytic therapy for preterm delivery: systematic review and network meta-analysis. BMJ 2012, 345) examining the efficacy of tocolytics to suppress preterm labour and prevent preterm delivery. The analysis is interesting, but rather complex.  They first did systematic reviews of all of the pairwise comparisons for which there was trial data, then performed the network thing. The final evaluation gives a probability that a particular agent is the best, 2nd best, 3rd best and so on, for delaying delivery for a least 48 hours, for maternal side effects etc. They indicate that antiprostaglandin agents (mostly indomethacin, but 4 others have been studied and are lumped together as one category in this meta-analysis) are probably the most effective for delaying delivery for at least 48 hours, and oxytocin receptor antagonists are probably the safest (although the antiprostaglandin agents came close). The authors also confirmed that there is no clear evidence of clinical benefit, in terms of reduction in mortality or the risk of acute lung disease in the baby. A skeptical editorial accompanies the article (skeptical of the benefits of tocolytics, not of the systematic review). Having said that the evidence that these agents are no better or worse than placebo is fairly weak. The quality of the studies is generally good, as Dr Haas and co-workers showed in another recent publication, with the major exception that too many of them are too small, especially those comparing to placebo.

There has been a network meta-analysis in neonatology, only one that I am aware of, (Jones LJ, Craven PD, Attia J, Thakkinstian A, Wright I: Network meta-analysis of indomethacin versus ibuprofen versus placebo for PDA in preterm infants. Archives of Disease in Childhood – Fetal and Neonatal Edition 2011, 96(1):F45-F52). Published last year, and with a much simpler network, indomethacin and ibuprofen versus placebo. They seemed to demonstrate that both drugs are equally effective at closing the PDA, but that ibuprofen may lead to more BPD.

** Update ** I knew there was a recent article published about how to read and use a network meta-analysis, but my RAM failed me (my real actual memory) and my database search was fruitless, partly because the authors call this a multiple treatment comparison meta-analysis rather than ‘network’. Anyhow an addition to the JAMA series ‘A User’s Guide to the Medical Literature’ takes you through the topic in a very useful, usable, way.  (Mills EJ, Ioannidis JP, Thorlund K, Schunemann HJ, Puhan MA, Guyatt GH: How to use an article reporting a multiple treatment comparison meta-analysis. JAMA : the journal of the American Medical Association 2012, 308(12):1246-1253.)

 

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Weekly Updates #11

Back to mostly actual neonatology this week

Kumral A, Tuzun F, Yesilirmak DC, Duman N, Ozkan H: Genetic basis of apnoea of prematurity and caffeine treatment response: Role of adenosine receptor polymorphisms. Acta Paediatrica 2012, 101(7):e299-e303. The paper suffers from a complete lack of detail about how apnea was ascertained. As it includes preterm babies some of whom were probably less than 30 weeks gestation who are noted to be “without apnea” this could be a problem. Having performed prolonged recordings of hundreds of preterm babies, I would say that the baby less than 30 weeks who goes 24 hours without an apnea is a very rare baby indeed. Also the division of babies with apnea into caffeine responsive and unresponsive is not explained, no definition is given and no details of how this was ascertained. So with all those important caveats, it seems that there are adenosine receptor polymorphisms which correlate with being in their “with apnea” group, and correlate with being in their “caffeine resistant” group. That being in their caffeine resistant group correlates with having more BPD, and that the adenosine receptor types therefore correlate with BPD. So it may be that the adenosine receptor subtypes are important in variations in breathing control, and that as caffeine works by blocking the receptors, variations in the receptor might affect caffeine responsiveness.

Larsen BMK, Goonewardene LA, Joffe AR, Van Aerde JE, Field CJ, Olstad DL, Clandinin MT: Pre-treatment with an intravenous lipid emulsion containing fish oil (eicosapentaenoic and docosahexaenoic acid) decreases inflammatory markers after open-heart surgery in infants: A randomized, controlled trial. Clinical Nutrition 2012, 31(3):322-329. This small single center RCT had physiologic rather than clinical end-points, the concentration of TNF-α. The report lacks a good description of the eligibility criteria, including for example how old the “infants” were and whether they were already hospitalized and already on TPN when randomized, or whether TPN was started in both groups for the study (even the results only give the gestational age at birth, the postnatal age is not mentioned). Anyway infants who got pre-operative omega3 fatty acids in their lipids had lower pro-inflammatory cytokines after surgery than the controls who received omega6 exclusive fat.

Hillman NH, Moss TJ, Nitsos I, Jobe AH. Moderate tidal volumes and oxygen exposure during initiation of ventilation in preterm fetal sheep. Pediatr Res. 2012. 15 minutes of positive pressure ventilation with 6 to 7 mL/kg tidal volumes compared to CPAP increased pro-inflammatory cytokines in partially exteriorized preterm fetal lambs. 15 minutes of oxygen had no effect. 6 to 7 mL/kg is not a very large tidal volume, but it was administered in this study without PEEP, in a previous study they showed that PEEP was partially protective .

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Early Detection of Sepsis in the NICU

This came out before I started my blog, but think it is very important. I was reminded that I had never mentioned it on this blog when I met Joseph Randall Moorman at the airport on the way back from Istanbul. I think it is important because there is very little in recent years which has been shown in well-designed trials to reduce mortality in the NICU, but this innovative monitoring technique did.

I say innovative, but in fact people have been studying heart rate variability for years as an early indicator of various things, in this particular instance a reduction of baseline heart rate variability with an increase in transient decelerations as an early indicator of sepsis. Dr Moorman and his collaborators have been investigating this for years; they have developed ways of quantifying the changes which occur and expressing them as a relative increase in risk of developing sepsis in the next 24 hours.

In this study, (Moorman JR, Carlo WA, Kattwinkel J, Schelonka RL, Porcelli PJ, Navarrete CT, et al. Mortality Reduction by Heart Rate Characteristic Monitoring in Very Low Birth Weight Neonates: A Randomized Trial. The Journal of Pediatrics. 2011;159(6):900-6.e1) 3000 babies less than 1500 grams birth weight in 9 NICUs were put on a new monitor which records the index of heart rate characteristics (HRC). Half of the babies were randomized to have the information made available to the clinical staff, and the other half had the information hidden. The staff were trained to understand that when the HRC increased that was a potential indicator of early stages of sepsis. The use of an HRC index which is a relative risk, i.e. when the HRC is 2 the risk of sepsis is doubled, makes it very easy to understand and use as a part of clinical evaluation of the baby. A baby who otherwise looks perfectly fine and has a low pre-test probability of sepsis could just be evaluated and observed; for another baby at increased risk and some may-be signs of sepsis a full evaluation and starting antibiotics might well be appropriate.

The primary outcome variable for the trial was an increase in ventilator free days during the first 120 days of life. I am not sure why. The trial was powered for a 2 day difference in ventilator free days, they actually found a difference of 2.3 but it wasn’t “statistically significant” (see my previous post!)  I presume the variability in this outcome was greater than anticipated. There are a lot of things other than sepsis that affect ventilator free days, so choosing this for the primary outcome could really be questioned, it was probably a compromise between the statisticians, trialists and neonatologists. I would urge all of you to read the article, it is a model of a scientific report, concise, clear, with all the essentials, and a very nice discussion section of the pathophysiology. The one lack is that there is no discussion of why they chose this primary outcome.

In the control group 10.2% of the babies died. In the group with the HRC visible 8,1% died. This difference was statistically significant. The effect seemed more marked in the smaller babies.

The advantage of being in the HRC visible group was mostly among those who did indeed have an episode of culture proven sepsis. “The mortality rate in the 30 days after the first episode of proven sepsis was 10.0% in the infants whose HRC monitoring results were
displayed compared with 16.1% in the control infants,” the intervention group did get a few more sepsis work ups,  and a slight increase in antibiotic use.

Now what? I think this technology deserves to become widespread. I think that this particular algorithm is now better supported than any other monitoring technique in the NICU. I think that the company should licence the algorithm to other monitor manufacturers, who should buy the licence and make it available with software upgrades and new monitors at a reasonable price. I think that if anyone else wants to develop and try to sell their own algorithm, we should all be very wary, and recognize that this is the only HRC algorithm shown to reduce mortality, and anyone else needs to prove their own algorithms in a new large simple well-performed RCT. Like this one.

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Fiddling while the data burns

Two recent articles highlight one of the adverse consequences of our fixation on p<0.05. It became common during the 20th century to state that if your statistical test shows that the results you found are unlikely to be due to chance, at a level of less than 1 time in 20, then they were significant. The scientific community could easily have decided on 1 chance in 18 or 1 chance in 22, but 1 in 20 is a nice round number on a base 10 number system. (If we had evolved to have 11 fingers it would probably be 1 in 22!)

Anyway when you spend a lot of time and energy doing a research project, and you think you data are great, but the statistical test comes out as p=0.058 what do you do? There is an often unconscious feeling that maybe there was an outlier that you should eliminate, maybe the data should be analyzed by a different test, or you should transform it before doing the test. Low and behold, after several tries at fiddling with the data, the p value is 0.048 and you can use the hallowed word “significant”.

A recently published study provides some evidence that this actually happens. Masicampo EJ, Lalande DR: A peculiar prevalence of p values just below .05. The Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology 2012:1-9. They examined the main p-values reported in psychology journals, what they showed was something that shouldn’t happen, that p-values just slightly below 0.05 were more common than they should be.

That little circle just below .05 is way higher than it should be, people have been fiddling with their results! Imagine if we did have 11 fingers, a critical p value of .045 would make all those results non-significant.

Another new publication has suggested a way to show this, the authors reckoned that if people are fiddling, then there should be fewer than expected p values which are just above 0.05, as they will have been “adjusted” downwards. Gadbury GL, Allison DB: Inappropriate fiddling with statistical analyses to obtain a desirable p-value: Tests to detect its presence in published literature. PLoS ONE 2012, 7(10):e46363. So they developed methods to compare the proportions of p-values in different ranges, just above 0.05 and just below 0.1. Unfortunately their method only works on large data sets of p values, and can’t be used for an individual study.

The main reason this sort of thing happens, which distorts the medical literature, is the bias in publication of significant results, and the relative difficulty of publishing results if the p value is a bit too big. It was suggested years ago (Gardner MJ, Altman DG: Confidence intervals rather than p values: Estimation rather than hypothesis testing. Brit Med J 1986, 292:746-750, among others.) that we should stop publishing p values, and instead publish estimates of effect and confidence intervals. I think we could take this further, journals should review only the methods of a paper, if the methodology is sound, they could then commit to publishing, and afterwards see the results and discussion, for editing and formatting, and ensuring that the discussion is appropriate. They could demand that authors present estimates of effect and confidence intervals, and that any calculation of the statistical likelihood that the results are due to chance alone (significance testing) be presented without reference to any particular threshold.

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Weekly updates #10

Vanderbilt DL, Schrager SM, Llanes A, Chmait RH: Prevalence and risk factors of cerebral lesions in neonates after laser surgery for twin-twin transfusion syndrome. American Journal of Obstetrics and Gynecology 2012, 207(4):320.e321-320.e326. The authors followed children born after laser surgery, but only performed CNS imaging in those born before 32 weeks, and those more mature who had symptoms. So although described as a study of prevalence it is only a partial prevalence. There also wasn’t a standard protocol for imaging, so a 36 week infant with an cerebral infarct, who would be unlikely to have symptoms, which is not necessarily the case at all, might only have had an ultrasound, with a poor sensitivity for this kind of lesion. So not surprisingly the major risk factor for a cerebral lesion was prematurity.

Wheeler B, Broadbent R, Reith D: Premedication for neonatal intubation in Australia and New Zealand: A survey of current practice. Journal of Paediatrics and Child Health 2012:online. All Australian NICUs and transport teams give premedication prior to endotracheal intubation. Hooray! 80% of them have a written protocol. Hooray! More than half of them use morphine. Boo! (Morphine is the one opiate shown to not improve physiologic stability during intubation, its onset of action is 10 to 15 minutes, too slow for an acute procedure.)  Come on Aussies, you need to switch to something that works fast enough to reduce pain and improve stability during intubation.

Slater L, Asmerom Y, Boskovic DS, Bahjri K, Plank MS, Angeles KR, Phillips R, Deming D, Ashwal S, Hougland K et al: Procedural Pain and Oxidative Stress in Premature Neonates. The Journal of Pain 2012, 13(6):590-597. The authors measured indicators of oxidative stress before and after removing tape securing a dressing of a central line or arterial catheter. Signs of pain correlated significantly with indicators of oxidative stress.

Mann PC, Cooper ME, Ryckman KK, Comas B, Gili J, Crumley S, Bream EN, Byers HM, Piester T, Schaefer A et al: Polymorphisms in the fetal progesterone receptor and a calcium-activated potassium channel isoform are associated with preterm birth in an Argentinian population. J Perinatol 2012. We know that progesterone therapy reduces recurrence of preterm birth, this study suggests that prematurity is associated with an increased risk of having particular isoforms of the progesterone receptor, as well as a potassium channel. Also ethnic differences in these associations.

Grobman WA, Thom EA, Spong CY, Iams JD, Saade GR, Mercer BM, Tita ATN, Rouse DJ, Sorokin Y, Wapner RJ et al: 17 alpha-hydroxyprogesterone caproate to prevent prematurity in nulliparas with cervical length less than 30 mm. American journal of obstetrics and gynecology 2012. In this particular high-risk group without a previous delivery, (placebo controlled randomized trial in 660 pregnant women) progesterone didn’t work. About 25% had a preterm delivery in each group, confirming that they were indeed high risk.

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The Benefits of Chocolate (not quite neonatology, but relevant in the middle of a night on call)

A new publication in the Prestigious New England Journal of Medicine (that is how the news media always refer to it, I think they should change the abbreviation to PNEJM) Messerli FH: Chocolate consumption, cognitive function, and nobel laureates. New England Journal of Medicine, online first October 10, 2012,  shows that chocolate consumption per capita is very strongly correlated with number of Nobel Prize winners as expressed as a proportion of the population. The correlation is much better than you would usually find in an epidemiology publication. While the authors are appropriately cautious about implying causality, they do suggest that either chocolate makes you smarter, or that smarter people choose chocolate. Readily testable hypotheses, with large simple RCTs. I just don’t want to be randomized to placebo, thanks.

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