Is cows milk just for cows?

A new publication from the trial funded by Prolacta looking at possible benefits of their donor-human-milk derived preparations. This time it is the other comparison from the registered trial. That is; mothers who did not plan to breast feed were approached to randomize their infants, birth weights 500 to 1250 g.

(Cristofalo EA, Schanler RJ, Blanco CL, Sullivan S, Trawoeger R, Kiechl-Kohlendorfer U, Dudell G, Rechtman DJ, Lee ML, Lucas A et al: Randomized trial of exclusive human milk versus preterm formula diets in extremely premature infants. The Journal of pediatrics 2013)

The 2 groups received either processed, standardized donor human milk, with human milk based fortifier; or a preterm formula (which one is not stated). It is not clear what calorie density was given at what stage during the feeding regimes, although both seem to have started at 20 kcal/oz, and increased later on to 24 kcal/oz.
The primary outcome variable, as in the other part of this study, was the duration of parenteral nutrition, compared using a Kaplan Meier analysis. The sample sizes were tiny. Only 26 babies per group were planned, which was based on a very hopeful 50% reduction in the duration of PN which they thought would average 35 days in the formula group (SD 22 days).

This study was masked, which, as mentioned in the previous post, is rather important when many of the outcomes are based on subjective factors.

The enteral nutrition regime was supposed to start with 1 to 4 days npo, followed by up to 5 days of trophic feeding, followed by progression at 10 to 20 mL/kg/d up to 150 mL/kg/d.

Before getting to the clinical outcomes, it is interesting to note that the actual timing of introduction of the first feed was actually 6.5 days on average for the cow’s milk group and 4.0 days for the human. So most of the babies were started on feeds after the upper limit of the planned duration of being npo; it then took 25 days for the human milk fed babies to reach full feeds, and 29 days for the cow’s milk. I think we can do better than that. I think most very preterm babies can start feeds on day 1, and there is no good justification for not immediately starting to increase feeds, aiming for 30 mL/kg/d.  The data show that having trophic feeds is better than no feeds, but there is no data to show that trophic feeds are better than immediately increasing feed volume. There is no data that different rates of feed advancement affect NEC.

In this study the parenteral nutrition duration was longer with cow’s milk, (p=0.4). There was a lot of NEC in the bovine group, 5 cases, 21%, and 1 case in the human milk group, which was not statistically significant. 4 of the NEC cases in the cow’s milk group went for surgery, but not the human milk baby (p=0.036).

That is an awful lot of NEC, and an awfully high proportion needing surgery. I don’t think I have ever seen that in a publication, and I also used to work in a center where there was very little breast milk when I arrived, and we didn’t have anywhere near that incidence (even though it was too high).

I think we do need to be a little skeptical about this result, it is, again a secondary outcome, in a very small trial which was seriously underpowered, with a very small number of total events, but it is suggestive that this approach may be a big advance, if it can be confirmed in further, larger trials.

One thing also worth noting is that the incidence of late onset sepsis was not affected in either of the  Prolacta trials. In this new publication a whopping 79% of the bovine and 55% of the human milk babies got at least one late onset infection (difference not significant). In the previous study it was between 19 and 28% (highest in one of the human milk fortifier groups). Clearly human milk is not the answer to infection prevention, we need other approaches.

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We didn’t find what we wanted to find, so we thought we’d re-analyze the data until we found it.

…oh and by the way, we are the manufacturers making the product in question, so we had objective scientific reasons for doing this, no conflict of interest whatever.

The commercial sponsors of a negative trial decided that they didn’t like the results, so they have re-analyzed it. Two of the 3 authors of the new publication, including the corresponding author, are employees of the company that makes the product tested in the original trial. The original trial found no effect on the duration of intravenous feeding (TPN) in preterm babies randomized to receive a human milk based breast milk fortifier, compared to standard fortifier. So they analyzed the same data in a different way, and lo and behold, found that they were significantly different after all!!

So let’s have a look at the original trial.

The original trial was a multi-center RCT of 3 different regimes of enteral nutrition in infants 500 to 1250 g birth weight, whose mothers wanted to give breast milk. One group received a standard cows-milk-based breast milk fortifier, the other two groups received a new fortifier derived from donor human milk, one of which started the fortifier earlier than the other.  There were 207 babies in total, planned to be 69 per group. The primary outcome variable was duration of TPN (intravenous nutrition). The study was negative, there was no difference in duration of TPN between the groups.

On first reading the trial appears to have been well designed, and well performed (but way too small). I do have problems with the way it was presented. Even the title was misleading (An Exclusively Human Milk-Based Diet Is Associated with a Lower Rate of Necrotizing Enterocolitis than a Diet of Human Milk and Bovine Milk-Based Products).

It would have been more accurate to use a title such as ‘An Exclusively Human Milk-Based Diet has no effect on TPN duration, but Secondary Outcomes show Possible Marginally Significant Reduction in Necrotizing Enterocolitis compared to a Diet of Human Milk and Bovine Milk-Based Products’.

That would be  a more accurate, but less sexy title.

The original study showed a possibly significant (more of that later) difference in the frequency of one of a large number of secondary outcomes: namely Necrotising Enterocolitis. So the title of the publication, and the abstract, and the discussion,  focused on this outcome. You can’t help but wonder if that focus had something to do with the fact that the study was funded by, and several of the authors were employees of, the company that makes the human milk based fortifier.

I once was co-author of a study where the first draft of the publication emphasized the interesting secondary outcome; it did not mention in the title the primary outcome, and concentrated in the abstract on the secondary outcome before describing the negative primary. I understand the desire to do this but it should be resisted by authors and by reviewers. We changed our title, abstract, and presentation to concentrate on the primary outcome, while still describing and discussing the secondary outcome. in the text.

Studies are designed to have power to detect a difference in the primary outcome. They are very rarely powered to be able to study 2 outcomes. So a positive secondary outcome must always be considered suspect. Especially if you examine multiple secondary outcomes. Important secondary outcomes do need to be measured and reported, but they must be considered exploratory and preliminary, needing confirmation.

The original publication of the Sullivan et al study found that the frequency of NEC in one HM (human milk based fortifier) group was 3/67, in the 2nd HM group it was 5/71, and with breast-milk receiving infants who got a cow’s, bovine, milk based fortifier (BOM) the incidence was 11/69. Firstly, that is a very high rate of stage 2 NEC in the breast-milk fed BOM controls (a 17% rate of NEC in preterm babies of this gestation receiving breast milk is highly unusual), so it may just be a quirk. Secondly, I have put these numbers in my software, and if you put them in as 3 groups, they actually are not significant. If you compare the 2 combined HM groups to the BOM group then the p value is 0.03, which is what was reported in the paper. That may be an appropriate way to analyze the data, as long as you planned it that way from the start. The study is way underpowered to compare 3 groups for any of their outcomes.

The trial registration documents state that the sample size was supposed to be 260; and although I don’t find the documents very clear, there were supposed to be 5 groups, the 3 mentioned here and 2 other groups which were of babies who do not receive mothers milk, randomized to either donor human milk preparation plus HM fortifier or premie formula.

NEC was not listed as a secondary outcome variable in the registration page of the website. This may be evidence of one of the limitations of trial registration, and of trial reporting. Maybe the website just doesn’t include all of the pre-specified secondary outcomes. I think CONSORT should require that registration documents are supplied with the final manuscript and any discrepancies be clearly described in the manuscript.

To be honest, I think this is a real shame, I think a human milk based fortifier is a good idea, and if we could really show that it was preferable I would be all in favour. But this study does not prove benefit, just a potential signal that needs to be appropriately investigated, with adequately powered studies, which would have to be much larger than this to have enough power to show a difference in NEC.

Also studies of NEC should be blinded. Diagnosis of NEC is quite subjective, and differentiating stage 1 from stage 2 requires identification of pneumatosis. There are at least 2 publications (here and here) which show that the inter-rater variability for diagnosing pneumatosis gives a Kappa score of between 0.2 and 0.3, which, to interpret for you, is lousy! There is a serious risk of bias in unmasked studies when the important outcome is so subjective. I can’t see any good reason why this study could not have been blinded.

If it were done correctly, and still proved that human milk based fortification reduced NEC then I would be first in line to get my hospital to pay for it. Until then I think we can still accept  the previous evidence from systematic review of 7 trials including 640 preterm infants, that cows-milk protein based fortifiers have no effect on the incidence of NEC.

__________

Update August 29th. Mike Hewson wrote a comment that I have decided to put here as he is completely correct.

Hi Keith – the previous evidence (the Cochrane review) does not show that cows milk protein based fortifiers have no effect on NEC. What it shows is a trend towards more NEC (and more death) in the fortification groups. The effect size is quite large but the numbers are too small so there is a very real risk of Type 2 error here. The Cochrane review phrases it as “insufficient evidence to be reassured that there are no deleterious effects”. We need a large study of cows milk fortifier versus control adequately powered for real long term outcomes to assess risks and benefits.

I replied to him:

I agree, your wording is preferable to what I put in the post, there is no strong evidence of adverse effects with the use of cow’s milk based fortifiers, but not enough evidence of safety. We certainly need better studies of fortification which include enough babies who are at risk of adverse outcomes to have the power to say whether they are safe or not.

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Public Citizen are a public danger: part 2

The other part of the criticisms of Public Citizen, included in their letter to the secretary of the HSS in the USA, in which they call for the TOP (transfusion of preterms) trial to be stopped immediately, are regarding the consent forms.

The letter reviews the two previous trials as I have presented them in part one, and repeatedly states that there were:

‘less favorable outcomes seen in the IOWA and PINT studies for subjects in the restrictive transfusion group’

Public Citizen are willfully misrepresenting the results of those two trials: they did not show less favorable outcomes, as I have explained in part 1.

That being the case, what are the additional risks of being in the TOP trial, compared to being in an NICU and not participating in the trial?

Most babies under 1kg get transfused during their hospital stay. They may be transfused according to thresholds which are similar to the high TOP thresholds or the low TOP thresholds, or some other number, based on whatever the doctor is feeling like that day. So there are great variations around the world, and the procedures to be studied in TOP are well within the range of current clinical practice. There is therefore a very good justification for saying that the research poses no additional risks. It is dangerous to be an extremely preterm baby, transfusions on the other hand are really rather safe (safer than being ventilated, or having an arterial line). Studies in adults in ICU showed unexpectedly that lower transfusion thresholds were preferable, except maybe if you have unstable coronary artery disease. In the PICU transfusing at lower thresholds was not different from higher thresholds. The prior studies in the preterm baby have shown no difference, but are under-powered for the long term outcomes.

By the way, according to the Public Citizen standards those two previous trials were unethical; neither the TRICC trial, nor the TRIPICU trial had a ‘carry-on-doing-whatever-it-is-you-already-do,-and-transfuse-when-you-feel-like-it’ group (thankfully).

Public Citizen seem to think that the TOP IRBs were all misled or weren’t doing their job, and that they should have required the consent forms to list all possible complications associated with transfusions and/or prematurity as things that might possibly be different between the groups.

Their specific issues with the consent forms are as follows:

(1) As previously discussed, as part of routine care outside the research context, the hemoglobin level at which a particular premature infant would be transfused is routinely based on consideration of many individual patient factors, only some of which are taken into consideration in the experimental algorithms for the liberal and restrictive transfusion groups. Note also that an experimental  algorithm based in part on a poll of hemoglobin thresholds that would be acceptable to neonatologists in the context of a randomized clinical trial is not the same as what the hemoglobin thresholds for blood transfusion would be in usual care outside of a clinical trial. None of the consent forms clearly describe how the research interventions deviate from the usual individualization of transfusion care in extremely premature infants not enrolled in the study.

This is just evidence that they don’t know how we decide to transfuse patients.

It is also an egregious misunderstanding of clinical research. It is actually essential that the thresholds being tested are thresholds which would be used outside of a trial. If not the trial is a waste of time. If they were to compare transfusion at 20 to transfusing at 2, then that would be useless, as we won’t ever do that. If the thresholds being tested would be unacceptable in clinical care that really would be unethical, and you should just save your money and go home.

(2) Only two of the 17 IRB approved consent forms identified the restrictive group as being the usual approach for infants not enrolled in the research at that institution.  None of the other consent forms explained how the thresholds used for the two experimental groups compared to those used at the institution where the infant would be hospitalized if not enrolled in the research.

Not everyone would agree that the restrictive group is the usual approach, I would certainly say that both the restricted and the liberal approach are within usual care. Like many hospitals practice in my NICU is very variable, and you could find babies in my unit today who have received transfusions at the upper or lower limit, so to make such a statement would be misleading.

(3) Seven consent forms included the following misleading statement or one very similar to it:

This study does not alter the routine care of your baby.

The protocol changes nothing about routine care, other than obviously the transfusion threshold. That is what that statement means.

(4) Sixteen consent forms included the following uninformative and misleading statement that blurred the distinction between the two research interventions being tested and the individualized transfusion decisions that would occur for infants not enrolled in the research:

Both of these [hemoglobin threshold] levels [for determining when to transfuse blood] are in the usual range used by doctors in the NICU.

That is neither misleading nor uninformative, it is an accurate statement.

Public Citizen go on to state:

Finally, it seems unlikely that any parent who fully understands the results of the prior clinical trials, as well as the true risks, purpose, and nature of the experiment, would be willing to enroll their premature infant in this study.

Well I would. I am a parent of a premie, who understands these issues much better than Public Citizen, and I would certainly have been willing to enroll my baby.

They are also inconsistent, they note that the restricted transfusion thresholds are described, in the protocol, as being closer to the current practice of more neonatologists than the higher thresholds, then repeatedly claim that the lower thresholds are already known to be more dangerous (which is not true). Don’t they understand that would be really good evidence that we need to do this trial? And surely they can’t think that their own cursory perusal of the published evidence is so much more perceptive than the world experts on transfusion of the preterm who have got together to do this study?

Unfortunately Public Citizen get media attention. The NPR website for example has a news item ‘Another Study Of Preemies Blasted Over Ethical Concerns‘ which is not too unbalanced but does quote some of the dangerous misconceptions of Public Citizen. It seems that trying to destroy the confidence of parents in the ethical oversight of research in the preterm is one of their goals, if they succeed, they will seriously harm many thousands of babies, whose treatment will be improved by this kind of trial.

The last word again to Dr Lantos

What a topsy-turvy world! Today, neonatologists around the world want to carefully and collaboratively study the risks and benefits of common therapies. They publically announce their intentions and seek feedback from research review boards. Their study designs are rigorously scrutinised, and their consent forms are reviewed for accuracy and understandability. Parents are accurately informed of the reasonably foreseeable risks and benefits of the research. The studies are carefully monitored. Babies in the studies are protected from the risks of research and the risks of treatment with non-validated therapies. Their outcomes are better than those of babies not in the studies.

But then these neonatologists are criticised by advocacy groups and by the federal agencies whose mandate is to ensure the responsible conduct of research. These groups suggest that babies would be better off if doctors would misrepresent the risks of the studies, frighten parents away, prevent responsible research and continue to treat babies based on their non-validated beliefs about what is best.

We cannot let that happen.

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Public Citizen are a public danger: part 1

They are at it again.

The people in the Public Citizen health research group don’t understand evidence based practice, they don’t understand clinical research and they don’t understand neonatology. Which doesn’t stop them from making a fuss about high quality important neonatal research, claiming that it is unethical, and that the consent forms and IRBs are again inadequate.

This time they are claiming that the TOP trial is unethical, and the consent forms and IRB approvals are inadequate. The TOP trial (Transfusion of Preterms) is a large multi-center RCT comparing 2 different treatment algorithms, it is designed to address a serious area of clinical uncertainty. The situation is very analogous to the oxygen saturation uncertainties prior to SUPPORT, COT and the BOOST trials.

Speaking of which John Lantos has published a vigorous defense of SUPPORT and the support investigators, even while a Nature editorial is much more ambivalent. I will quote the penultimate paragraph from the Nature editorial as I think it illuminates much of the misunderstanding of these trials.

Put yourself in the position of a parent with an extremely premature infant. Would you make the decision to enrol your child in the trial if the consent form stated in simple language that babies assigned to one group were more likely to go blind, and that those in the other were at a higher risk of getting neurodevelopmental disabilities? Equally, would you decide to enrol if the form spelled out that, if you do not take part, your own physician and institution might keep your infant in the middle of the range, trying to avoid either outcome? Perhaps you might, but you would do so with full knowledge of the attendant risks. The parents in this case could not do so.

My first response is to note that the babies did not have more blindness in one group or the other. There was also no difference in neurodevelopmental disabilities. The paragraph also fails to note that being in the middle of the range might well be worse than either of the other 2 ranges (they could theoretically have both a higher rate of RoP and more deaths), we actually don’t know, and the consent forms did note that infants outside of the study might be treated with any of the currently used target ranges. Which would include the lower range which is now known to increase mortality.

So what is the current situation with transfusion thresholds. They are extremely variable, from NICU to NICU and from neonatologist to neonatologist. There are no clear indications for transfusion in the majority of babies. Those who are actively bleeding and are hypovolemic are clearly appropriately transfused urgently, but that is the minority of transfusions in the NICU. Most are given simply because the hemoglobin number is low. But we don’t know what the best number is at which to transfuse, if there is one.

There are all sorts of reasons why transfusing at a higher or lower threshold might be preferable, stored blood has risks relating to ages of the cells, abnormalities of the cells due to the storage media, infections, etc. But they do increase oxygen carrying capacity and in cases where oxygen transport might be limited this could affect outcomes.

 The members of Public Citizen writing to the Secretary of the HHS in the USA note the 2 previous relevant trials. One is the trial by Ed Bell, which enrolled 100 babies between 500 and 1300g birth weight with a primary outcome which was the number of transfusions received. Of note some of the babies in each group (about half) had already been transfused before being randomized. One of the secondary outcomes, and there were 17 of them, was different between the groups, that is, the combined incidence of grade 4 hemorrhage and PVL, which was more common in the restricted transfusion group 6 babies vs 0. Now usually we include all serious IVH (grade 3 and 4) when talking about serious brain injury. There were actually more grade 3 hemorrhages in the liberal transfusion group, 8 vs 1. So using the usual definition of serious brain injury, it was actually more frequent in the liberal transfusion group: 8 babies vs 11.

According to the wording of the Public Citizen document, this is evidence which suggests poorer outcome in the conservative group. Er, no. It is evidence which is rather unreliable which might possibly mean something and needs to be confirmed with an adequately powered trial.

The authors of the letter do note that the long term follow up of Bell’s trial was actually better in the restricted transfusion group. But they don’t like that finding so they criticize the low follow up rate, while not making any criticisms of the selection of the outcome variable in the initial publication.

The second trial was one I was involved in, the PINT trial. That was an RCT in 10 NICUs in Canada, the US and Australia, of restricted versus liberal transfusion regimens in 451 babies under 1 kg birth weight. That study showed no differences between any clinical outcomes, the primary composite outcome, which included brain injury, was not different between groups. Also the components of that outcome, specifically brain injury on ultrasound were not any different (there were actually slightly more babies with liberal transfusions who had brain injury).

The follow up publication from that study included nearly all the surviving babies, and showed no significant differences in the outcomes. There were a few more babies with a delay in their development (Bayley2 MDI at 18 to 21 months which was <70) , 38/156 (24.4) with restricted transfusions vs 29/165 (17.6) with liberal transfusions. This was not significant, and in any case Bayley scores at this age have little predictive power for outcomes of clinical importance. An unplanned post hoc analysis showed that more restricted infants had a Bayley which was below -1SD.

So we clearly have NO data to support transfusing at any particular hemoglobin threshold: the 2 trials which are analogous to TOP had some minor differences in outcomes, neither of which was confirmed by the other trial. What does this mean? Well in the best of worlds that would mean that we should mount a larger multi–center trial, which adequate power to determine if there is any difference, comparing transfusion threshold practices which are within current limits of practice. That is exactly what we have in TOP.

We are finally doing some of those trials that we have needed for a very long time, and this trial, planned to have 1800 infants of less than 1000g is sorely needed to give us some evidence base for future practice.

What on earth do public citizen have against that? Their arguments are about the study design and about the consent forms.

The study design argument, after vaguely stating that there are ‘many features of the protocol which raise ethical concerns’ they only mention one feature which they think makes the study unethical.

A. Lack of a control group. They state that usual clinical care is that

‘decisions regarding the level of hemoglobin at which to transfuse blood would be individualized, based on multiple clinical factors.’

Just like their lack of understanding of how saturation ranges were chosen, they completely misunderstand how we decide to transfuse a baby. As I mentioned above, most transfusions are given because the complete blood count shows a hemoglobin below a certain level. That level may be fully protocolized in some units, or it may be according to individual physician preference. But in 2 NICUs in the same city exactly the same baby will get transfused according to different thresholds. When the on-call doctor changes, the decision to transfuse may change. This is actually entirely reasonable as we have little  evidence on which to base practice, and what evidence we have shows no effect of different transfusion thresholds.

According to Public Citizen transfusions are currently given according to individual patient factors including:

Current level of anemia
Active bleeding or coagulopathy
The degree of supplementary oxygen required
Level of respiratory support (e.g. intubation, positive pressure ventilation, nasal cannula)
Age of the baby
Reticulocyte count (count of new red blood cells)
The need for medication to help the heart pump blood (inotropic support) and
Major comorbidities, such as heart disease or sepsis
Other factors sometimes taken into account that support transfusion include
Lactic acidosis
Increasing episodes of apnea (stopping breathing)
Persistent tachycardia (abnormally fast heart rate)
Persistent tachypnea (fast breathing) and
Poor weight gain
At least some of that is true, as a description of current practice. Unfortunately almost none of it is evidence based, some of it makes no physiologic sense, and those parts which are clinically important are allowed anyway in TOP, or are exclusion criteria.
In detail:
Current level of anemia: Yes we do this, but we don’t know when we should, that’s what this trial is about.
Active bleeding or coagulopathy: transfusions are allowed for this in TOP
The degree of supplementary oxygen required and the Level of respiratory support (e.g. intubation, positive pressure ventilation, nasal cannula): Yes we do this, and the TOP algorithms include whether the child is on respiratory support, however, in fact it makes no sense. If your saturation is 92%, then what difference does it make to your transfusion requirement if you are in room air or ventilated with 40% oxygen? The cardiac function should perhaps affect transfusion requirements, but not pulmonary function.
Age of the baby. We don’t know if, or when, transfusion thresholds should change, but they do, arbitrarily, in the TOP protocols.
Reticulocyte count (count of new red blood cells). I don’t use retic counts for when to transfuse.
The need for medication to help the heart pump blood (inotropic support): Babies who are in shock will be allowed to get transfusions,
Major comorbidities, such as heart disease or sepsis: Babies with heart disease are ineligible, with sepsis can get transfusion if they are thought to need them.
Other factors sometimes taken into account that support transfusion include
Lactic acidosis: I don’t know if anyone uses lactates as a sign to transfuse, except maybe for babies in shock (see above)
Increasing episodes of apnea (stopping breathing). There is no good evidence that apnea is affected by transfusions, there was no effect on apnea in the PINT trial.
Persistent tachycardia (abnormally fast heart rate) I don’t think anyone transfuses for this alone.
Persistent tachypnea (fast breathing): no evidence to support this.
Poor weight gain: no evidence.

Public Citizen think there should be a ‘usual care control group’. By which they mean a 3rd group which is treated according to whatever the hell you feel like. I don’t know how on earth they think that will help.

Yes if there was an evidence-based ‘best therapy’ which was known to be better than other algorithms, then a standard-of-care group would be required ethically. Just as now, if someone wants to do another trial of oxygen saturation targeting, the control group would have to be the high saturation limits as studied in SUPPORT, COT and the BOOST2 trials.

By the arguments that Public Citizen are making a large proportion of clinical research is unethical. Any study that compares to protocols of care is unethical if there isn’t a 3rd group which is: carry on doing whatever you feel like.

That is what I meant by saying at the start of this long post, that they don’t understand evidence-based practice. Our care for our patients should be based on some evidence about what is the preferred approach. If we currently have enormous variations in practice, no reason for choosing one approach rather than another, it is ethically preferable to perform the randomized trial comparing two protocols of care than just continuing to guess what might be best for our patients, using our prejudices and our cognitive biases. Including a treatment arm which is non-evidence based, in which patients get treated according to the whims of the doctor is a terrible, unethical, way to perform research.

I will quote from John Lantos regarding the belief by OHRP and Public Citizen that we should exaggerate the risks of our research projects:

Why would they require this? The ideas that research is risky compared to non-validated therapy and that care by protocol is inferior to care by individualised clinical judgment have been around for a long time. They used to be widely held by doctors and criticised by bioethicists as unjustifiable medical paternalism. William Silverman, a pioneer of neonatology and a staunch advocate of better clinical studies, was familiar with such arguments. He identified them as a belief in ‘mystical certainty’ rather than an acceptance of ‘scientific uncertainty.’

Public Citizen are of the opinion that being treating according to the doctor’s gut feeling is somehow safer than being in a clinical trial. We know that is not true, it is an argument from medical infallibility, and it is ridiculous.

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More about SUPPORT, but this time not the consent forms

The main, surprising, finding of SUPPORT, now confirmed by the other oxygen trials, is that aiming for O2 saturations that were a little lower led to higher mortality.

The big question is why? Having a saturation of 85% to 90% should surely not create such a tissue injury, immune reaction, circulatory dysfunction (or whatever else is implicated), that very preterm babies are more likely to die as a result, should it?

I think an observation of Juliann Di Fiore (free access) from Richard Martin’s group might be very relevant. This analysis of high-resolution oximetry data from SUPPORT quantified episodes of intermittent hypoxia in 115 infants from the 2 groups (from 2 hospitals in the trial). IH was defined as a fall in saturation to less than 80%, for at least 10 seconds but less than 3 minutes. The low saturation group had many more such events, especially during the first few days, and then again after 2 months. The average lowest saturation during these episodes was usually below 70%, so very far below the ranges that we thought we were testing, large numbers of profound desaturations like that could well be dangerous, causing hypoxia/re-oxygenation many times a day.

Another, new, publication is also suggestive, this time looking at cerebral saturations  Schmid MB, Hopfner RJ, Lenhof S, Hummler HD, Fuchs H: Cerebral desaturations in preterm infants: A crossover trial on influence of oxygen saturation target range. Archives of Disease in Childhood – Fetal and Neonatal Edition 2013. The authors did a cross-over study, changing the saturation limits from 80–92% to 85–96% for 4 h each. The periods of time with the lower limits had more episodes of intermittent desaturation, and more episodes of intermittent cerebral desaturation also using NIRS, confirming Di Fiore’s results, and showing that there is an impact at the level of cerebral oxygenation.

Interestingly the graphs in this new study show, very clearly, the missing saturation values between 87 and 91% that are now known to be due to mis-calibration of the Pulse Oximeter. The authors note that this mis-calibration leads to “an artefactual elevation of SpO2 readings between 87% and 90%”. This reduces the difference between groups, depending on the target ranges chosen. Hence the separation in mortality which occurred in the BOOST2 trials and COT only after the algorithm was changed. Which begs the question, why was the mortality difference there with the old algorithm in SUPPORT? I can’t answer that, the intervention in SUPPORT started much earlier in life than the other studies, maybe that magnifies the effects of lower saturations, certainly the lower sats give you more severe intermittent hypoxia in early life. The babies in Di Fiore’s study were all from SUPPORT, so using the old algorithms, and they did see the increase in hypoxic spells in the low sat target group.

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Who should get surfactant?

I think the literature is clear, if you need surfactant, the earlier you get it the better. If you don’t need surfactant you are better off never being intubated. So how do we decide? Current management protocols usually put babies on CPAP if possible at first, then watch to see if the O2 requirements go up, and then intubate when it seems inevitable that the baby will benefit from surfactant, often this is at 30%, or 40% (as in the Vermont DR management trial), or 50% (such as in the SUPPORT trial), or 60% (as in the COIN trial). This variability is evidence that we are not really sure when we should intervene.

What would help would be a simple test, minimally invasive which could predict, shortly after birth, whether a baby is producing enough of their own surfactant to avoid intubation. here have been a few attempts to do this, and measuring some aspect of surfactant production on the gastric aspirate is promising.

Why gastric aspirate? Mostly because it is easily available without intubation. Fetuses swallow what is in the pharynx, a mixture of fetal lung fluid and amniotic fluid.  Remember that amniotic fluid in late gestation is a mixture of fetal urine and fetal lung fluid, FLF is a product of the cells lining the future air sacs, which is produced under the influence of an alveolar cell chloride pump. So FLF has a much higher Cl than amniotic fluid. Anyway, if the fetus is producing a lot of surfactant there will be lamellar bodies and surfactant in the stomach of the newly delivered infant.

If you put some gastric aspirate in a blood counter, the lamellar bodies will be counted as platelets, so you can get a quick answer with equipement that your hospital already has.

This newly published study marks I think a potentially important advance. Henrik Verder and his associates, in Denmark and Sweden, have performed an RCT of a diagnostic test: which in itself is fairly innovative. They have tested whether gastric aspiration for testing whether there are enough lamellar bodies allows more selective treatment of the preterm infant, and whether their clinical outcomes would be better as a result.

The authors randomized about 400 preterms less than 30 weeks gestation to one of two groups. Everyone was on CPAP and had a gastric aspirate analyzed before 1.5 h of age, and then they either were intubated for surfactant if the lamellar body count was less than 8000 per microliter after centrifugation, or they were intubated when their a/APO2 was <0.36 (based on transcutaneous gas values). The primary outcome variable of the study was not affected, that is the proportion of infants who needed to be intubated in the first 5 days of life.

But the babies treated according to the lamellar body count got their surfactant significantly earlier, at 3 hours rather than 5 hours for the controls. And they were off supplemental oxygen earlier, which was significant for the more mature babies 26 to 29 weeks, 2 days of O2 on average compared to 9 days.

I think that we do not to be a little careful, as the primary outcome was not affected (and there was some difference in the numbers of very immature babies in the two groups), but I don’t think the lack of effect on proportion intubated is too surprising, the test was previously shown to predict who will get RDS, so the equal numbers treated are just confirmation that the test does predict which babies will get RDS. Treating them earlier in several previous studies makes a difference to lung injury, with differences of only 1 hour in the OSIRIS study leading to improved outcomes.

There were quite a few babies that they were unable to get enough aspirate to do the testing, so that will be one limitation, but this looks simple (and cheap!) if you can persuade your lab to do the test.

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Susceptibility to Sepsis

It looks like those Toll-like receptors may indeed be important. I included a review article in a previous Neonatal Updates, which was nice introduction to these transmembrane receptors that are important in immune responses. A new article suggests that variants in Toll-like receptors are important in determining susceptibility to sepsis. Out of 408 very low birth weight babies, the 90 that developed infections had a different profile of the SNPs of their TLRs than those that did not.

Sampath V, Mulrooney NP, Garland JS, He J, Patel AL, Cohen JD, et al. Toll-like receptor genetic variants are associated with Gram-negative infections in VLBW infants. J Perinatol. 2013 Jul 18..

I hope that sounds like I understand all this stuff, I like sounding well-informed!

If you read this blog, (and I guess if you are reading this blog you are a reader of this blog….) you know I will often be rather skeptical, so I would say for this study that the results are preliminary, that if you look for associations between 9 different SNPs and infection you might well find some that turn out to be spurious in the future; however, these authors did apply a Bonferroni correction for multiple statistical testing and it seems plausible that if the SNPs affect TLR function there could well be effects on sepsis susceptibility. Confirmatory studies will I am sure be forthcoming.

The next question is what to do with this information? Sepsis in very preterm babies is very important; it is frequent, and leads to long term disability, cognitive and motor (free access). The NICHD network published a long term follow up of infants with Candida and other septic episodes earlier this year (the first author is my friend and previously a fellow from when I was in San Diego: great study Ira!) This article confirms what we knew about late onset sepsis and adds much new information about the long term effects of Candida.

So if we can somehow in the future use the understanding of TLR variants and sepsis susceptibility to find ways to reduce sepsis then we may have a big impact on the lives of our patients.

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Teaching Well

If you are a clinical teacher, and you have access to the Lancet, you should read this Reilly BM: Inconvenient truths about effective clinical teaching. The Lancet, 370(9588):705-711.

Great insights, and good guidance for teachers.

 
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End of Life, at Birth

An Op-Ed piece in the NY Times a couple of weeks ago had that title.

I was rather disappointed by the piece, written by an experienced neonatologist; now I suppose for a piece written for the NY Times the fact that it is a very superficial look at perinatal decision-making is somewhat understandable, she makes some good points, but I think it shows a very old-fashioned approach to the issues.

Take this paragraph:

‘Sometimes, I think we doctors need to do more than inform. On occasion, I’ve offered to make a life-or-death decision for parents. If they agree, they are essentially making the decision, but are shifting the burden to me. It’s harder for parents to say, “I unplugged my baby,” than to let the doctor do it.’

I think if the author really thinks that all the doctor should do is inform, then she is very mistaken. Offering to make life-or-death decisions ‘for’ the parents is also extremely disturbing, especially given the whole tone of the article, which makes me wonder how often such a decision would be a ‘life’ rather than a ‘death’ decision. Does she even make that offer if she thinks the decision should be ‘life’?

The whole model of shared decision-making is missing from this piece; rather than imparting knowledge, these difficult discussions need to be about sharing what is important to the parents and the caregivers, exploring values together, working together over the course of the hospitalization to make the best decisions for the baby. There should be no dichotomy between either just informing and then leaving the parents to it, or making the decision in their place.

The whole tone of the article is very negative about the outcomes of the extremely preterm baby, while noting that ‘many’ extremely preterm babies ‘will need treatment long after birth, sometimes for life, at great financial and emotional cost to them and those around them’ she nowhere mentions that the majority do not. And, just as important, that the majority of those who do have long term impairments find their lives quite acceptable.

She also makes the classic, almost universal, error of talking about “survival or having a moderate to severe neurodevelopmental impairment”. I say that is an error as I don’t know how to interpret those numbers; if the risk of that combined outcome is truly 92% (and I imagine she used the NICHD calculator to come up with that exact number) it means something very different if the risk of death is 2%, but that 90% of babies survive with an impairment; compared to the risk of death is 90% but 2 out of 10 survivors have an impairment. We should avoid giving that number, if parents want an estimate of numerical outcomes, talking about the proportion who survive, and separately the proportion who have serious long term impairments among survivors is much more appropriate.

I also think it is an error to focus on the antenatal consultation as the time to make active treatment decisions. Our predictions are so unreliable that making decisions about life-sustaining interventions, at a variable time before birth, when there are great uncertainties about gestational age, and even greater uncertainties abut fetal weight, is really questionable.

What we do need, and don’t really have as yet is a way to predict survival or impairment during the hospital course. We can calculate the percentage survival for the whole group of preterm babies with each additional day of survival, which shows by the way, that once you are born and survive the first day or so, that gestational age has no influence on survival rates. What we can’t yet do is to predict after each day of additional intensive care, or each additional complication, what is the likelihood of going home.

Many of the comments after the piece are also very negatively slanted, many expressing a belief that all these babies end up dependent for life and profoundly impaired.

There are many parent-of-premie blogs out there, some of which I quietly follow. Several have posted responses to Dr Dworetz’s article. See here, and here, and here, and here and here. Those responses are really worth a read, to get parental feelings about the article; they should make you think, I hope, and take some time to reflect on what we mean by Quality of Life, and how that may be different to the Value of a Life.

These parent websites are very often a good source to reflect on how doctors and families interact, for one example the website/blog “life with jack” has a good post “The doctor is not God” which has a list of things that doctors often predict with great certainty, and then turn out to be mistaken, and how that affects families.

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Nutritional Catch-Up

This is my attempt to catch up with some interesting publications from the last few weeks, about nutritional interventions and necrotizing enterocolitis.

Karagol BS, Zenciroglu A, Okumus N, Polin RA: Randomized controlled trial of slow vs rapid enteral feeding advancements on the clinical outcomes of preterm infants with birth weight 750–1250 g. Journal of Parenteral and Enteral Nutrition 2013, 37(2):223-228. 92 babies of 750-1250g birth weight were randomized to a feeding regime which increased by 20 mL/kg/d or 30 mL/kg/d. Although there weren’t any very tiny babies in this study, the results are consistent with all the small number of other prospective studies, that is, there is no effect of how we feed babies on Necrotizing Enterocolitis or other complications. The only effect of feeding babies faster is to get them fed faster! They get off IV feeding more quickly.

Ramani M, Ambalavanan N: Feeding practices and necrotizing enterocolitis. Clinics in Perinatology 2013, 40(1):1-10. That is the opinion also of the authors of this nice review article, they also note ‘Human milk compared with formula reduces the incidence of NEC. Feeding practices do not increase the incidence of NEC in preterm infants. There is no evidence supporting continuous versus intermittent tube feedings in preterm infants… Human milk-based fortifier compared with bovine-based fortifier may reduce the incidence of NEC but additional studies are required.’

That article is part of an issue of Clinics in Perinatology which is all about NEC.

Moore JE: Newer monitoring techniques to determine the risk of necrotizing enterocolitis. Clinics in Perinatology 2013, 40(1):125-134. This one, for example, is about monitoring techniques such as NIRS, a good review which motes that there is little current evidence that we can predict NEC with any of the techniques, but that there is hope for the future.

Stoltz Sjöström E, Öhlund I, Ahlsson F, Engström E, Fellman V, Hellström A, Källén K, Norman M, Olhager E, Serenius F et al: Nutrient intakes independently affect growth in extremely preterm infants: Results from a population-based study. Acta Paediatrica 2013. This population based study tries to answer the question ‘is the poor growth of very sick babies due to their inability to use the nutrition that they are given, or are they just not given enough?’ The answer is that we don’t give them enough, and even after correcting for severity of illness, nutritional intakes were the most important factor in poor growth. Give them more.

Neubauer V, Griesmaier E, Pehböck-Walser N, Pupp-Peglow U, Kiechl-Kohlendorfer U: Poor postnatal head growth in very preterm infants is associated with impaired neurodevelopment outcome. Acta Paediatrica 2013, 102(9):883-888. This is one of the consequences of poor nutrition. Smaller heads. Which are associated with poorer development.

Valentine CJ, Morrow G, Pennell M, Morrow AL, Hodge A, Haban-Bartz A, Collins K, Rogers LK: Randomized controlled trial of docosahexaenoic acid supplementation in midwestern U.S. Human milk donors. Breastfeeding medicine : the official journal of the Academy of Breastfeeding Medicine 2013, 8(1):86-91. This RCT shows that there is little DHA in breast milk of donors to a milk bank in Ohio, but supplementing the mothers increases their milk DHA content, and increases the DHA received by the baby to within an acceptable range (whatever that is) and certainly suggests that it might be a valuable thing to do, if we can prove that clinical outcomes are improved, which is certainly a possibility.

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